How This Bizarre Campaign Shattered the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.
On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.
Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.
This is how the projected ballot could shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.
The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.
During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!
Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.
Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.
Still
